The Uncommon Average

The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926.[1] But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average? Exhibit 1 shows calendar year returns for the S&P 500 Index since 1926. The shaded band marks the historical average of 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The S&P 500 had a return within this…

INDEXING VS. EVIDENCE-BASED INVESTING

Many investors realize that an evidence-based investment approach offers many benefits when compared with an active investment approach. Evidence-based investing involves buying and holding market components, whereas an active investor or fund manager tries to pick the next winning stock or time where the market is headed next. An evidence-based approach offers these major benefits: By holding entire market components, the investor maximizes the benefits of diversification. By “tilting” the portfolio to riskier or less risky components, the investor can expect to capture the highest market return given his or her risk tolerance. The investor maintains control over his or…

Market Gurus Mostly Strike Out….Again

Larry Swedroe At the start of each year, I compile a list of predictions that gurus have made for the upcoming year, along with some items I frequently hear from investors—sort of a consensus of “sure things.” I keep track of these sure things with a review at the end of each quarter. With the turn of the calendar, it’s time for our midyear review of 2017’s list. As is our practice, I’ll give a score of +1 for a forecast that came true, a score of -1 for one that was wrong and a 0 for one that was…

The Importance of Global Diversification

An investor’s ability to achieve their investment goals often relies on maintaining discipline in their portfolio over the long term. Diversification across securities, sectors, and countries can help investors maintain their focus, potentially allowing them to avoid extreme outcomes that may result from a more concentrated approach. However, short-term performance of individual markets may cause some investors to question the merits of diversifying across countries and consider reallocating to markets that have recently done well. In these times, it’s important to be reminded of the benefits of maintaining a globally diversified portfolio.    

Invest Now or Temporarily Hold Your Cash?

At some point in their lives, investors may receive a large sum of cash, such as a pension payout or inheritance. Finance theory and historical evidence suggest that the best way to invest this sum is all at once according to an investor’s asset allocation. Many investors nevertheless choose to put the money to work over time, a systematic implementation plan that is commonly referred to as dollar-cost averaging. We explore the benefits of both strategies, quantify the costs, and reach three conclusions that can guide decision-making. History and theory support immediate investment. On average, an immediate lump-sum investment has…

When Emerging Markets Outperform

Earlier this week, we looked at emerging markets and why many investors stick to domestic stocks due to two biases: home country and recency, despite a compelling case for emerging market investing. To more fully understand the case for global diversification, I’ll resume the discussion with an exploration of two studies related to emerging markets. The Importance Of The Book-To-Market Ratio Michael Keppler and Peter Encinosa, authors of “How Attractive Are Emerging Markets Equities? The Importance of Price/Book-Value Ratios for Future Returns,” which appears in the Spring 2017 issue of the Journal of Investing, provide us with some further insights as to…

Indexing vs. Evidence-Based Investing

Many investors realize that an evidence-based investment approach offers many benefits when compared with an active investment approach. Evidence-based investing involves buying and holding market components, whereas an active investor or fund manager tries to pick the next winning stock or time where the market is headed next. An evidence-based approach offers these major benefits: By holding entire market components, the investor maximizes the benefits of diversification. By “tilting” the portfolio to riskier or less risky components, the investor can expect to capture the highest market return given his or her risk tolerance. The investor maintains control over his or…

Active vs Passive Investing

What does it mean to be an active investor versus a passive investor? Siena Wealth Advisors invited Larry Swedroe to discuss his book Think, Act and Invest like Warren Buffet. Larry answers what it means to be an active investor vs a passive investor and what Warren Buffet says about the topic.

Prediction Season

In the coming weeks, investors are likely to be bombarded with predictions about what the future, and specifically the next year, may hold for their portfolios. These outlooks are typically accompanied by recommended investment strategies and actions that are aimed at trying to avoid the next crisis or missing out on the next “great” opportunity. When faced with recommendations of this sort, it would be wise to remember that investors are better served by sticking with a long-term plan rather than changing course in reaction to predictions and short-term calls. PREDICTIONS AND PORTFOLIOS One doesn’t typically see a forecast that…

Can You Time the Stock Market?

Can individual investors and institutions successfully time the stock market consistently over the long-term? Siena Wealth Advisors invited Larry Swedroe to discuss his book Think, Act and Invest like Warren Buffet. Larry dives into the question of market timing and reveals what the Oracle of Omaha thinks.